2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Updated/Revised Forecast

The current Atlantic hurricane season forecast is expected to be above normal, with 10-17 named storms, including 5-9 hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Two to four of those hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger, with winds greater than 110 mph.

Why the projected increase?  The El Niño weather pattern has dissipated completely, and transitioned into a neutral stage, where sea surface temperatures are normal.  Typically, El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead.

Hurricane forecast models over the next two weeks show no major tropical development in the Atlantic.  But, the warmest Atlantic ocean water is still to come, and the peak hurricane potential is still in front of us from September to November 30.

Are you prepared?  Please get ready now!

Gary Baron
Director
Emergency Management
North Stonington, CT