At his time every year, all of our thoughts should be focused upon the 2019 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June through 30 November. Are you prepared to shelter in place, potentially for at least three days, or longer?
El Niño and warmer-than-average Atlantic temperatures help shape this season’s storm intensity. This outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Niño is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Niño, is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and enhanced west African hurricane activity.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near normal season, and a 30% chance of an above normal season.
This hurricane season’s forecast, predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). But, what will their travel pattern be? At this point, it’s anyone’s guess. (NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.)
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence level. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2019 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Are you ready?
Have you registered with “CTAlert?” It’s the best way to keep informed during weather emergencies. It’s easy and free.
Thank you, and have a wonderful summer!
North Stonington, CT